Chasing the Ghost: Hyperinflammation Does Not Cause Sepsis.

Sepsis is infection sufficient to cause illness in the infected host, and more severe forms of sepsis can result in organ malfunction or death. Severe forms of Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), or disease following infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are examples of sepsis. Following infection, sepsis is thought to result from excessive inflammation generated in the infected host, also referred to as a cytokine storm. Sepsis can result in organ malfunction or death. Since COVID-19 is an example of sepsis, the hyperinflammation concept has influenced scientific investigation and treatment approaches to COVID-19. However, decades of laboratory study and more than 100 clinical trials designed to quell inflammation have failed to reduce sepsis mortality. We examine theoretical support underlying widespread belief that hyperinflammation or cytokine storm causes sepsis. Our analysis shows substantial weakness of the hyperinflammation approach to sepsis that includes conceptual confusion and failure to establish a cause-and-effect relationship between hyperinflammation and sepsis. We conclude that anti-inflammation approaches to sepsis therapy have little chance of future success. Therefore, anti-inflammation approaches to treat COVID-19 are likewise at high risk for failure. We find persistence of the cytokine storm concept in sepsis perplexing. Although treatment approaches based on the hyperinflammation concept of pathogenesis have failed, the concept has shown remarkable resilience and appears to be unfalsifiable. An approach to understanding this resilience is to consider the hyperinflammation or cytokine storm concept an example of a scientific paradigm. Thomas Kuhn developed the idea that paradigms generate rules of investigation that both shape and restrict scientific progress. Intrinsic features of scientific paradigms include resistance to falsification in the face of contradictory data and inability of experimentation to generate alternatives to a failing paradigm. We call for rejection of the concept that hyperinflammation or cytokine storm causes sepsis. Using the hyperinflammation or cytokine storm paradigm to guide COVID-19 treatments is likewise unlikely to provide progress. Resources should be redirected to more promising avenues of investigation and treatment.

Diagnostic Utility of a Ferritin-to-Procalcitonin Ratio to Differentiate Patients With COVID-19 From Those With Bacterial Pneumonia: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for accurate, rapid, inexpensive biomarkers that can differentiate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from bacterial pneumonia. We assess the role of the ferritin-to-procalcitonin (F/P) ratio to classify pneumonia cases into those due to COVID-19 vs those due to bacterial pathogens. METHODS: This multicenter case-control study compared patients with COVID-19 with those with bacterial pneumonia, admitted between March 1 and May 31, 2020. Patients with COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia co-infection were excluded. The F/P in patients with COVID-19 vs with bacterial pneumonia were compared. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis determined the sensitivity and specificity of various cutoff F/P values for COVID-19 vs bacterial pneumonia. RESULTS: A total of 242 COVID-19 pneumonia cases and 34 bacterial pneumonia controls were included. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia had a lower mean age (57.1 vs 64.4 years; P = .02) and a higher body mass index (30.74 vs 27.15 kg/m2; P = .02) compared with patients with bacterial pneumonia. Cases and controls had a similar proportion of women (47% vs 53%; P = .5), and COVID-19 patients had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (32.6% vs 12%; P = .01). The median F/P was significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 (4037.5) compared with the F/P in bacterial pneumonia (802; P < .001). An F/P ≥877, used to diagnose COVID-19, resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 56%, with a positive predictive value of 93.2% and a likelihood ratio of 1.92. In multivariable analyses, an F/P ≥877 was associated with greater odds of identifying a COVID-19 case (odds ratio, 11.27; 95% CI, 4-31.2; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: An F/P ≥877 increases the likelihood of COVID-19 pneumonia compared with bacterial pneumonia.

The time to offer treatments for COVID-19.

Background: COVID-19 has several overlapping phases. Treatments to date have focused on the late stage of disease in hospital. Yet, the pandemic is by propagated by the viral phase in out-patients. The current public health strategy relies solely on vaccines to prevent disease.Methods: We searched the major national registries, pubmed.org, and the preprint servers for all ongoing, completed and published trial results.Results: As of 2/15/2021, we found 111 publications reporting findings on 14 classes of agents, and 9 vaccines. There were 62 randomized controlled studies, the rest retrospective observational analyses. Only 21 publications dealt with outpatient care. Remdesivir and high titer convalescent plasma have emergency use authorization for hospitalized patients in the U.S.A. There is also support for glucocorticoid treatment of the COVID-19 respiratory distress syndrome. Monoclonal antibodies are authorized for outpatients, but supply is inadequate to treat all at time of diagnosis. Favipiravir, ivermectin, and interferons are approved in certain countries.Expert Opinion: Vaccines and antibodies are highly antigen specific, and new SARS-Cov-2 variants are appearing. We call on public health authorities to authorize treatments with known low-risk and possible benefit for outpatients in parallel with universal vaccination.

The Importance of Understanding the Stages of COVID-19 in Treatment and Trials.

COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, continues to be a major health problem since its first description in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Multiple drugs have been tried to date in the treatment of COVID-19. Critical to treatment of COVID-19 and advancing therapeutics is an appreciation of the multiple stages of this disease and the importance of timing for investigation and use of various agents. We considered articles related to COVID-19 indexed on PubMed published January 1, 2020-November 15, 2020, and considered papers on the medRxiv preprint server. We identified relevant stages of COVID-19 including three periods: pre-exposure, incubation, and detectable viral replication; and five phases: the viral symptom phase, the early inflammatory phase, the secondary infection phase, the multisystem inflammatory phase, and the tail phase. This common terminology should serve as a framework to guide when COVID-19 therapeutics being studied or currently in use is likely to provide benefit rather than harm.

Diagnostic utility of a Ferritin-to-Procalcitonin Ratio to differentiate patients with COVID-19 from those with Bacterial Pneumonia: A multicenter study.

IMPORTANCE: There is a need to develop tools to differentiate COVID-19 from bacterial pneumonia at the time of clinical presentation before diagnostic testing is available. OBJECTIVE: To determine if the Ferritin-to-Procalcitonin ratio (F/P) can be used to differentiate COVID-19 from bacterial pneumonia. DESIGN: This case-control study compared patients with either COVID-19 or bacterial pneumonia, admitted between March 1 and May 31, 2020. Patients with COVID-19 and bacterial pneumonia co-infection were excluded. SETTING: A multicenter study conducted at three hospitals that included UCHealth and Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital in the United States, and Yichang Central People's Hospital in China. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 242 cases with COVID-19 infection and 34 controls with bacterial pneumonia. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The F/P in patients with COVID-19 or with bacterial pneumonia were compared. Receiver operating characteristic analysis determined the sensitivity and specificity of various cut-off F/P values for the diagnosis of COVID-19 versus bacterial pneumonia. RESULTS: Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia had a lower mean age (57.11 vs 64.4 years, p=0.02) and a higher BMI (30.74 vs 27.15 kg/m 2 , p=0.02) compared to patients with bacterial pneumonia. Cases and controls had a similar proportion of women (47% vs 53%, p=0.5) and COVID-19 patients had a higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus (32.6% vs 12%, p=0.01). The median F/P was significantly higher in patients with COVID-19 (4037.5) compared to the F/P in bacterial pneumonia (802, p<0.001). An F/P ≥ 877 used to diagnose COVID-19 resulted in a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 56%, with a positive predictive value of 93.2%, and a likelihood ratio of 1.92. In multivariable analyses, an F/P ≥ 877 was associated with greater odds of identifying a COVID-19 case (OR: 11.27, CI: 4-31.2, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: An F/P ≥ 877 increases the likelihood of COVID-19 pneumonia compared to bacterial pneumonia. Further research is needed to determine if obtaining ferritin and procalcitonin simultaneously at the time of clinical presentation has improved diagnostic value. Additional questions include whether an increased F/P and/or serial F/P associates with COVID-19 disease severity or outcomes.

Preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection by blocking a tissue serine protease.

Currently, there are no proven pharmacologic interventions to reduce the clinical impact and prevent complications of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the cause of the ongoing Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Selecting specific pharmacological targets for the treatment of viral pathogens has traditionally relied in blockage of specific steps in their replicative lifecycle in human cells. However, an alternative approach is reducing the molecular cleavage of the viral surface spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 to prevent viral entry into epithelial cells.